ASEAN Energy Outlook in the Year 2020

(ii) AEEMTRC's ASEAN 2020 ENERGY OUTLOOK STUDY provides policy outlook and analysis of the region's search for unified action to enhance energy security and environmental quality and locates trading opportunities in the energy market of ASEAN. Highlights of the study include:

ASEAN population is expected to increase at around 1.7% per year over the 1988-2010 period and declining growth rate at around 1. 2 % per year between 2010 and 2020.
ASEAN Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is expected to be 6.8% per year over the 1988 - 2010 period and at about 5.9% per year between 2010 and 2020.
The expected final energy demand growth will vary by scenario type and sector.
The levels of emission of pollutants with exception to efficient scenario will be identical up to 2000 for all scenarios.

(iii) ASEAN Energy Outlook in 2020 is defined by 4 scenarios:

ENERGY SUPPLY FORECAST

ASEAN Primary Energy Supply
By Scenario, By Country
(MTOE)

		BASE	REF	SOX	EFF	ENV  
		1988	2020	2020	2020	2020

BRUNEI		 1.7	  3.8	  3.8	  3.4	  3.8
INDONESIA	67.8	243.2	242.5	199.4	237.8
MALAYSIA	14.8	 93.1	 92.3	 79.5	 92.4
PHILIPPINES	17.4	 88.6	 86.4	 80.2	 88.1
SINGAPORE	 6.8	 34.9	 34.3	 31.4	 32.6
THAILAND	27.7	166.4	156.5	142.4	154.9

ASEAN		136.2	630.0	615.8	536.3	609.6

ASEAN Primary Energy Supply
By Scenario, By Country (MTOE)

		BASE	REF	SOX	EFF	ENV  
		1988	2020	2020	2020	2020

COAL		  6.2	216.2	196.4	188.2	 93.4
OIL PRODUCTS	 68.3	252.1	250.4	185.5	250.7
GAS		 16.2	 84.2	 91.0	 88.5	 99.0
ELECTRICITY	  0.0	  0.4 	  0.4	  0.4	  1.8
NUCLEAR		  0.0	  0.0	  0.0	  0.0	 31.7
HYDRO		  4.8	 20.6	 21.0	 17.1	 60.7
GEOTHERMAL	  1.0	 15.6	 15.6	 15.7	 15.7
RENEWABLE	  0.0	  0.0	  0.0	  0.0	  5.5
BIOMASS		 39.7	 40.8	 40.8	 40.9	 51.1

Total		136.2	630.0	615.6	536.3	609.6

ASEAN Final Energy Demand
By Country, By Scenario (MTOE)


		BASE	REF	SOX	EFF	ENV  
		1988	2020	2020	2020	2020

BRUNEI		   .4	  1.5	  1.6	  1.3	  1.6
INDONESIA	 55.4	178.2	178.7	146.7	178.8
MALAYSIA	 11.4	 70.4	 71.1	 57.2	 71.0
PHILIPPINES	 14.1	 60.6	 60.6	 54.8	 60.6
SINGAPORE	  4.9	 23.1	 23.1	 19.5	 23.1
THAILAND	 22.5	127.0	127.6	106.3	127.6

ASEAN		108.7	460.8	462,7	385.8	462.7

ASEAN Final Energy Demand
By Type of Fuel, By Scenario (MTOE)

BASE REF SOX EFF ENV 1988 2020 2020 2020 2020 COAL 2.5 21.0 21.0 30.3 21.0 OIL 50.5 265.5 267.4 183.6 267.4 NATURAL GAS 5.3 35.7 35.7 46.1 35.7 ELECTRICITY 10.3 96.0 96.0 82.3 96.0 BIOMASS 39.6 40.8 40.8 40.9 40.8 COGEN STEAM 0.5 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8

Total 108.7 460.8 462.7 385.8 462.7

Notes:

Biomass contribution is not reflected in 1994 ASEAN Energy Statistics and future outlook. Biomass is a type of primary energy consumed in many Member Countries, with a share of almost 30% in 1988.
Future consumption of biomass will not show a significant increase, resulting to its decreasing share in the total supply mix of primary energy in the region to less than 10% by year 2020.